Forecasting economic development taking into account several turning points: Indicators, model calibration, simulation computations

The article considers the possibility of constructing forecasts for macroeconomic indicators taking into account turning points in their dynamics trends. calculations are performed on base a discrete approximation constraints simple economic growth stochastic model using Monte Carlo method. In first part, authors analyze problems justifying point and show that there is no single approach to definition. Changes GDP, oil prices other often serve as such indicators. second propose relate change value one numerical parameters under consideration — capital depreciation rate. To determine model, special calibration procedure proposed, based solving optimization problem according criterion minimum discrepancy between average calculated actual trajectories GDP Consumption over period. third experimental simulations data economies Finland, Cyprus Japan. Three allocated Japan, Finland. Forecasts these countries at current constant 2010 constructed. For all three consideration, results indirect accounting by amendment rate allows significantly improving quality trajectory, specified confidence interval selected forecast